Geographic poverty targeting in social protection programs: Evidence from a nationwide policy experiment

Abstract

How much should program impacts vary across places when cash transfers are implemented at national scale? We study this question using a nationwide experiment embedded in a humanitarian cash transfer program for Syrian refugees in Lebanon that randomizes households to alternative district budget allocation rules. While allocation rules shift resources toward demographically distinct households, average improvements in poverty outcomes are similar across households prioritized by these rules. In contrast, program impacts vary sharply across locations, with geographic heterogeneity dominating differences generated by targeting. Qualitative evidence links this variation to locally binding constraints, including housing obligations, accumulated debt, and institutional frictions.

Citation: Altindag, O., O’Connell, S.D., Achour, R. (2025). Geographic Poverty Targeting in Social Protection Programs: Evidence from a Nationwide Policy Experiment. Working Paper.